I'm a junkie.
I check out YouTube and Google Video on a daily basis. I have a Soapbox account which I plan on using daily as soon as they get some decent content. I have both a FireAnt and blip.tv account and I subscribe to probably a dozen or more video casts.
Everyone could see the writing on the wall. The personal video revolution that we're currently going through is an evolutionary step that started with Gutenberg and probably won't end until we are able to record and playback experiences. The interesting parts of watching the "phenomenon" unfold are how fast it has been adopted, how ubiquitous it has come, the factors that are influencing its maturation and how the cream has risen.
Acceleration
Although there were forerunners, most people would agree that YouTube represents the poster child of online video. The YouTube.com domain was claimed on February 15, 2005. The first public preview of the site was in May of that same year with the official launch in November. Earlier this week, just eleven months after launching, Google purchased YouTube for $1.65 Billion. You'd be hard pressed to find another business that moved from inception through acquisition so quickly and successfully.
Coverage
By July of 2006 YouTube had 100,000,000 videos viewed each day. 65,000 new videos were uploaded every 24 hours by the more than 20,000,000 visitors hit YouTube every month. So that's not quite ubiquitous, but it does account for quite a large following. Maybe your mom doesn't watch videos online yet, but it's a safe bet that you have a non techno-weenie in your family who does.
Maturation
YouTube may not be the first place you think of when looking for examples of "mature" video as evidenced by the drawing power of the numa numa video. If you can put aside for a minute that of the 65,000 new video uploads per day, 64,999 are amateurish BS by losers with cameras (yours is of course the exception. I love yours. Keep up the good work!) When I'm talking mature, I'm talking about that one that stands out. YouTube falls down here because re-sampling looses quite a bit of the ambiance that makes a good video great.
Some better examples are shows like Hak.5, RocketBoom and most everything from Revision3. And I'm not just talking about the editing. The concepts, the use of the medium, the depth, the characters everything just reeks of the thought and effort all the people have put into them and it's reflected in the output.
Cream
So who are going to be the "Oscar" winners? I think it's too early to tell. There are so many early leaders, but most of this current batch will not be remembered as the best of the best. Their place will likely be more along the lines of trail blazers and pioneers that set the stage for the next wave. Even so, the next wave is likely to follow very close behind and in fact will take the current "studios" to the next level. It's easy to spot which ones will succeed and which will dominate... I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader.
TTFN