I'm listening to the latest episode of TWiT and the panel is talking about how they love Twitter and some of them mentioned that they started using something that I hadn't heard of called a TumbleLog.  Needless to say I had to take a minute to check it out so I set myself up with accounts on both Twitter and Tumblr.  To sum them up:

Twitter allows you to send little "Right now I'm doing X" messages from a web page, IM client or cell phone so your friends can see what your up to.

A TumbleLog is a shorter, less formal blog.

Both of these services are missing some key components and neither really WOWs me but together they hint at the emergence I mentioned in my last post , and again the key is OpenID!

The current view of social networks is upside down.  A site doesn't define my network, my network is defined by me.  I have friends (hypothetically speaking of course ;-}) and I want to share things with those friends.  I'm interested in what they are doing.  I want a site which is defined by my friends and is a reflection of my network(s) and is as individual as I am.

In order to accomplish that I first need a way to define my "circle of friends."  Currently my friends are defined by individual sites.  I have my MySpace friends and my Flickr friends and my Facebook friends etc...  I need to define my groups of friends.  I need to globally identify them and to define my circle independent of an arbitrary web site.  OpenID = problem solved. 

The next thing I need is a way to record things of interest to me and to make those things available to one or more of the various "circles" of my friends.  I need some place to store the things I collect that is readily available to the people I want to have access to it.  S3 = problem solved.

At this point Twitter and/or TumbleLog become interesting.  Now I could snap a picture from my cell phone and that picture can be saved where it is available to my friends.  My friends can be notified regardless of the device they are currently using.  They can vote on it, add it to their personal favorites, pass it on to a different circle, associate it with other content, tag it etc...  Now my "MySpace" home page is a self generating, self editing view of one or more of my circles.  The information has been injected into the network and the network defines the data, not vice-versa.

This doesn't eliminate the Facebook's of the world, it just changes their role.  There is still a place for them but as more of a place to meet new people than as a place to hang out with your friends.  If this is developed as a standard API it begins to look like the ground work for a full fledged social OS.

TTFN

I'm start a new job next week which means I have even less to do at this job than usual and that's really saying something.  I'm sitting here listening to Code Monkey mashups on Net@Nite 14 running my latest idea through my head when it occurs to me that I should work this out by writing it down.  After all that's the main reason I have a blog in the first place.

I don't think the idea is original but I don't know that anyone has put the same twist on it.  The concept is an Internet-based-scavenger-hunt-puzzle-game thing.  Something like The Amazing Race but online for everyone.  I know you're thinking "AOL already did it.  It's called Gold Rush"  but that's not quite what I had in mind or maybe it is but not exactly. 

Let me list some of the things that I'm thinking about.

• Prize Money - Unfortunately I don't have any to offer, but that doesn't mean there won't be any.  What I was thinking is the game will of course include advertising via something like AdWords or possibly even by directly involving sponsors.  The money generated from advertising (after expenses of course) will be applied directly to the prize "pot."  Not only would this presumably generate more money than I can afford to put up but it also adds an interesting twist, namely that more people means more competition but bigger prize and more people means more advertiser interest which means bigger prize etc....
• Eliminations - Not sure how to do this yet.  On the one hand games without penalties are just stupid but eliminating players could reduce the prize money and maybe reduce interest in the game.  Right now I'm leaning toward a point based system.  You get points based on finishing position after each leg.  The race is then broken down into segments.  First segment (3 legs?) no eliminations.  Next segment anyone who can not mathematically win gets eliminated.  Next segment only the top X teams can continue.  Final segment (4 teams remain) one team eliminated at the end of each leg.
• Social - By know you know that I'm an anti-social guy who has an unhealthy fascination with social networking.  Since games are best played among friends I think it's important to add some social interaction.  One thought is that everyone starts out playing on a team by themselves.  At any point you can merge teams to create a larger team.  This would give you an advantage but would mean you would have to split the prize if you won.  In addition it would be nice to work in some way for spectators to support and cheer-on the players.
• Tasks - Each leg would have multiple (many?) tasks and those tasks would each provide a piece of something needed to solve some kind of "master task."  In some cases you may need to complete several sub-tasks in order to complete a task needed to complete the master task.  Tasks could include math/logic problems, puzzles, quizzes, skill challenges, finding Easter eggs and anything else that sounds fun.

Perhaps a walk through

1. I create an account using OpenID and sign up to play the game which starts in a few weeks.  
2. A few days prior to the start of the game I receive an email which may include a list of suggested tools which will be needed during the game.  For example an RSS reader, a Flicker login, a Flash player etc...
3. Game time comes and I'm provided with a list of clues and the master task which for this example we'll say is an six piece tanagram puzzle.  Each task will unlock a different piece of the puzzle.  Once all the pieces are unlocked I will solve the tanagram (master task) completing this leg.
4. My first clue is simply a URL to an RSS feed.  Putting it into my RSS Reader I am presented with the string "kdi39dIKdkief9dldkof" and a message stating that an additional clue may or may not be available in 8 hours.
5. 8 hours later I get another message that says "Flicker".  Using the 2 clues I search Flicker for the tag "kdi39dIKdkief9dldkof" which leads me to a picture set which contains a bunch of pictures of letters which form the string "http://www.someurl.com/[The Speed of light] which I deduce to mean http://www.someurl.com/299792458 which I enter into my browser and am awarded a "key" to unlock one of the pieces of the tanagram.
6. At this point, another player with a different piece of the tanagram unlocked, requests a merger.  I accept and we are now permanently joined as a new team which has two pieces of the puzzle unlocked.
7. Eventually we complete the remaining tasks, complete the master-task and get our ranking for this leg.
8. Repeat until we are eliminated or win.

Random thoughts...

• To make things interesting things need to be randomized as much as possible.  For example a given URL may only work for one particular team or for a quiz the questions and the order of the answers would be randomized.  While this may not be possible for every single task, it should be the norm not the rule.
• A running "prize pot" should be displayed as well as a real-time account of every player (ie. Team XYZZY is in 2nd place after solving tasks 1, 3 & 4)
• Spectators should be able to vote for their favorite team.  Maybe the favorite team is highlighted on the home page or the votes are used as tie breakers or something.
• Media can't be limited and the range of puzzles has to be broad.  Audio, Video, Images, Text from Blogs, Podcasts, dedicated websites, Google searches... everything is fair game and should be included.
• The goal is fun.  Advertising and the like take a back seat and are only welcome when they don't interfere.
• In Web 2.0 fashion, everyone should have a voice.

I'll keep bashing this around in my head, but it seems like something that could be fun.  As for now, I have to go pick up the kids.

TTFN

A week ago I mentioned that OpenID could have a big impact.  Since then 63 million AOL users were given an OpenID ID.  In addition Digg has announced its intent to support OpenID.  Talk about quick adoption!

TTFN

Software is continuously evolving.  It does so on a rather even keel.  Every now and again it appears to take a larger than normal step forward.  This is usually in line with a major upgrade and provides a small burst of evolutionary advancement.  Less frequently the whole industry appears to jerk forward, sometimes so spastically that it almost appears to be a revolutionary advance.  It appears to me that we are gearing up for one doosy of a forward jerk!

Like most idiots I can't explain exactly what form it will take.  I can't tell exactly when it will occur or even if it will occur, but I can tell you that we are at a precipice.  Despite what people may say, "Web 2.0" was not a leap forward but a predictable evolutionary step.  The last big leap forward was the wide scale adoption of the Internet, broadband and search engines.  Social Networking will undoubtedly play a role in this next leap as it has in every advancement mankind has made since we huddled together in caves.  You could even argue that it is the cause of almost all our advancements.

I can feel the change coming the same way you can sense a coming storm.  You can't quite explain what it is exactly that makes you know, maybe it's the way the sky looks or the air smells or changes in pressure or the behavior of other animals, but you do know.  The indicators I can see are in the data.  Ideas are being floated, people are becoming comfortable and things are occurring that are upsetting the status quo.  To me this all feels like the wind-up to a big leap forward.

Because I don't want to completely cop-out with a generic "sometime in the future something may happen" entry, I'm going to list a few things I think may contribute to or result from this change:

OpenID

This is one of those things that is so simple and seems so core that it amazes me that we don't have anything like it yet.  In a nutshell, OpenID gives you control of your own identity.  If this gains wide acceptance then you won't ever have to create another account on another system.  When you move, you'll only have to update your new address in one place and all of your accounts will be updated.  You will be able to manage your relationships, create personas and control access all from a single location.

You may be saying "That sounds great, but that's not a giant leap.", and you'd be right.  The paradigm shift comes as a result of this "single definition of you."  One of the possible results I see is a complete change in the concept of web sites.  Instead of you going from site to site to find things that interest you, those things will be brought to you.  Push instead of pull.  I would think this would involve something akin to channels that you could tune in and out or completely deny.  These channels would introduce you to music, videos, movies, blogs, books etc... that you may be interested in.  As with most things "after the leap" it will be rough and may even be hard to distinguish at first, but it will evolve to the point where surfing will seem archaic.

Death to Google -- Long live Google

Search is a commodity.  It is also in severe need of a change.  Bennett Haselton has a nice article about the creation of a meritocratic search engine, so I won't go into to deeply here.  The net-net will be that Google and the other search engines will give way to something better.  Something more tailored to you.  They will do this because they will not be able to justify the cost of competing with a community based search engine.  Ad revenue will shift from the search engine to the content where it arguably makes more sense.

What of Google?  Well, Google isn't going away anytime soon.  Google's AdSense or similar technology would still be necessary to manage the ads and payout's.  Google is also diversifying nicely into other areas, many of which will play important roles in the future.

Ubiquitous Computing

Not that "refrigerator on the Internet" BS that seemed to be all the rage in 1999.  What I'm talking about is computers that are just kind of there.  This is kind of hard to explain so let me throw out an example: 

I don't want to take notes during a meeting.  There is no reason a recording can't be made, translated to text, submitted to the search engine, sent to everyone involved etc... without me having to actually do anything or without a huge infrastructure in place. 

This is going to become possible because we are going to continue to increase the number of sensors used to monitor our environment and because computing power is becoming effectively unlimited due to advancements in hardware and numerous compute-power-on-demand services.

Hand in hand with this is the realization that our interface to the computers will change.  Instead of us always needing to directly interact with the machines the machines will need to monitor us and attempt to satisfy our every demand.  This may mean that we will have to install a microphone and/or video camera in conference rooms or that our cell phones will have to stream data from an open mic.

Mobile

Everyone thinks mobile devices are the future.  Sorry, I still don't see it.  Although everyone will own a mobile phone and they may use that phone as a conduit to their "digital profile", I don't see the simple cell phone as our UMPC answer.

OSS

Open Source Software doesn't have enough of a driving force to carry the full burden of this next leap forward but it will be a crucial component to moving the stick and maintaining the advancements.  The relationship between OSS and BigCo software is a funny one.  BigCo doesn't have much of an incentive to change the status quo.  OSS doesn't have much of an incentive to leave the status quo alone.  So the two of them push and pull and poke and prod each other until both sides advance.

OSS will play a bigger role after the jump.  OSS will be more prevalent in markets that don't have a natural barrier to entry.  BigCo will relax its proprietary hold on company data. 

SaaS

Another big part of what is about to occur is that specialization is key.  Infrastructure and IT are fading away.  Email, Storage, Computing power, CRM, Accounting etc.... are all things that should be handled by companies that specialize in those areas.  When these things are moved out-house (hehehe) the landscape of corporate America will change. 

I'm rambling now.  Truth is I don't know for sure what's coming.  I do know that something is coming and it will likely change the face of computing as we know it.  Some of what is going to happen has probably already begun or at least the ground work has been laid.  Some of it has yet to be even thought up.  We will begin to see some of this come to life in the next two years.  Who knows, maybe I can even help things along ;-}

TTFN

Do you ever have those days where you read about something and moments later you experience it in real life?  Well that just happened to me.  Yesterday I read a blog entry titled Sheepwalking by Seth Godin.  In it he gives a name ("sheepwalking") to the mindless, robotic actions that people do in the name of doing their jobs.  It's nothing new and it's nothing we haven't all assigned our own names ("The Lemming Principle", "Flockers", "Zombies" etc...)  Neil Stephenson alluded to this behavior via the "Three Ring Binder" in Snow Crash (is there anything this book hasn't predicted?)

Here is the story of my recent sheepwalking experience: 

A few days ago I fell and ripped up my calf muscle (I'll wait while you finish laughing)  I've been doing my best to get around despite my leg being encased in more body armor than is used by our troops in Iraq.  My gait is very similar to that of a bride walking down the aisle and today it snowed more than usual.  I thought I'd attempt to park in one of the spaces which are closer to the door and reserved for people with medical problems (not to be confused with the handicapped parking spaces)  It only takes me about 15 minutes to cover the 200 yds from one of these spaces to the front door as opposed to the 25-30 minutes from my usual spot.

So I finally make the journey to the door and let the security guard know that I have parked in one of the medical spaces.  Now maybe I'm naive, but I'm expecting one of a few response which could include 

• "Ok, that's fine"
• "Ok, just let me get your license plate and employee number"
• "You can't park there." 

As usual people continue to surprise me and I was told I had to go to the receptionist to get a parking pass to use the medical parking spaces.  Now that I've been working at a big company for the past 9 months I've come to except the endless bureaucracy that prevents anyone for accomplishing anything so I took this in stride and hobbled over to the receptionist and explained the situation to her.

She then presented me with several forms to fill out and informed me that I would need a note from my doctor and finally assigned me a specific space in the medical space parking lot pool which I could use.  This space was, of course, not the one I had chosen and so I would have to go back outside in the snow, walk the 15 minutes back to my truck, move it 4 spaces to the left and then walk the 15 minutes back to the front door. 

As I started to fill out the forms it occurred to me that this was exactly the kinds of things that were wrong with big companies, and exactly the kind of reasons I had to get back to smaller startup companies.  The paper work was bad, but I at least "get it."  The assigned spaces are nuts, but I could still justify that requirement if I really really tried.  Sending someone who is very obviously having trouble walking back outside in a snow storm to move a truck 20 feet seems not only dumb but pretty inconsiderate as well, but even this I could write off as simple rudeness.  The straw that broke the camels back for me was the note from my doctor.

My first thought was "Do you think I'm faking this?  Do you really think that a closer parking space is so valuable that I would invest in an aircast the size of a ski boot and hobble along the walkway for 15 minutes in the snow just to get one?"  It occurred to me that this is exactly the problem.  They don't trust the people they hire.  Of course the flip side of this is that the people they hire are not trustworthy.

That's really sad.  

I think it's time for a change of scenery.

TTFN